Macroeconomic factors have impacted consumer spending over the last three years. Faced with a tightening wallet, consumers prioritized experiences over things, providing a boost to restaurant sales. However, value is becoming increasingly important. In 2023, as consumers felt the inflationary pressure, many traded down to still enjoy the eating-out experience, opting for “a good deal.”

As restaurants adjust pricing to account for macroeconomic pressures, it is increasingly important to understand the incremental impact of pricing changes on customer loyalty and spend. For global or national restaurant chains, isolating the effect of a price change across multiple markets can be extremely difficult.

This case study examines how a leading fast-food restaurant chain quantified the true impact of a price increase using Mastercard’s anonymized and aggregated transaction data and Test & Learn^® with Causal Inference. The restaurant created a relevant performance benchmark using machine learning and spend data for the Quick-Service-Restaurant (QSR) sector captured in SpendingPulse™. As a result, the restaurant identified $40m in additional revenue by increasing prices.